Workshop on “Regional Power Trade with specific focus on Nepal and India” held in Kathmandu, 28th April 2016
In association with IIDS Nepal, IRADe presented the preview of the results of the yearlong extensive modelling study to a critical stakeholder group in Nepal at a workshop on “Regional Power Trade with specific focus on Nepal and India” held in Kathmandu on 28th April 2016. The workshop was attended by various representatives from the Government of Nepal (including the Secretary, Ministry of Energy, Jt. Secretary, Ministry of Energy, Jt. Secretary, Water and Energy Commission, representatives from Water and Energy Commission, Nepal Electricity Authority, Department of Electricity Development), besides representations from World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Investment Board Nepal, SAARC Secretariat, USAID Nepal, Independent Power Producers’ Association Nepal, and economists from Tribhuvan University and Kathmandu University, Research Organizations and civil societies organizations of Nepal. The stakeholders from Nepal appreciated the efforts undertaken by the study to develop an Integrated India-Nepal TIMES-Markal Model for assessment of technologically consistent electricity trade between India and Nepal. This model was further integrated with SAM based Macroeconomic Model of Nepal for assessment of impacts of trade on Nepal’s economy to show the impacts of CBET on GDP, per capita electricity demand, investments gains, sectoral impacts, etc. The stakeholder highlighted concerns of Nepal with respect to electricity trade. More clarity was suggested on broad assumptions of India model and gains on India side from the electricity trade, how the macroeconomic model captures the latent demand of electricity in Nepal, the interaction of electricity trade and economic growth, and structural change in various sectors of Nepal’s economy. In keeping with the views expressed by the stakeholders in Nepal, there would be stakeholder consultations in India for India-Model results, which will be followed by a joint final workshop for sharing the final results.
Progress of the Modeling activities and analysis
Oct – Dec 2015 The Reference Energy System of Nepal and India in the Answer-TIMES model were completed. Initial Nepal results were generated at various export prices with standalone Nepal Model without considering the absorption capacity of India. The model accounted for the entire 42 GW capacity hydro potential in Nepal. The modelling timeframe was 2047. It also accounted for NEA plans, the expected timelines for installation of various IPP projects including the export oriented projects till 2027. The model results indicated that capacity additions increased rapidly at power export prices over 8.00 NR per kWh for the storage type hydropower project beyond 2022. The rate of capacity additions was much higher at higher prices. There was a similar trend for ROR projects beyond 2027 over 4.00 NR per kWh. The modelling results depicted how electricity trade could be done under various scenarios while capturing the availability and demand for power in both India and Nepal.
Data Gathering and Stakeholder Consultations
A five-day visit to Nepal by Dr. Pradeep Kumar Dadhich and Dr. Probal Ghosh over 31 August 2015 to 4 September 2015 to meet potential stake holders and data agencies to channelize contacts for data gathering for SAM based and Answer-Times Model of Nepal. Data requirements were shared with various ministries representatives. The meetings helped sort out the data gaps and establish working relationships with various agencies of Nepal. The meetings helped procuring or establishing connections for future procurement of data from various sources:
- ADB, Central Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Finance, National Accounts Statistics, Nepal Rastra Bank, World Bank, UNDP
- USAID Nepal team (Mr. Khagi), NEA Officials (Mr. Surendra Rajbhandari and Mr. Sher Singh Bhatt), Nepal Rastra Bank Officials (Mr. Nara Bahadur Thapa), Nepal’s Planning Commission Member (Prof.Govind Nepal), Central Bureau of Statistics official (Mr Ishwori Prasad Bhandri), Investment Board of Nepal official (Ms Sophia Tamot) and IIDS official (Dr Bishnu Dev Pant).
Development of modelling strategies for Nepal’s Reference Energy System (RES) in Answer-TIMES Model and running a dummy model with assumed data values was undertaken and further refinement of the model is under progress. Data collection, validation, and analysis for modelling of India RES into the Answer-Times Model including data parameters for Thermal, Renewable and Hydro Technologies were done.